ESPON CLIMATE - Climate Change and Territorial Effects on Regions and Local Economies

(2005): The determinants of vulnerability and adaptive capacity at the national level and the implications for adaptation.In: Global Environmental Change Part A, vol. 15, no. 2: 151-163. Carter, T. (2007): Assessing the adaptive capacity of the finish environment and society under a climate change: FINADAPT. Summary for policy makers. Helsinki.: Integrated risk assessment of multi-hazards: A new methodology. Natural and technological hazards and risks affecting the spatial development of European regions. (2005): Ranking the adaptive capacity of nations to climate change when socio-political goals are explicit. (2000): The potential impacts of climate change on the mid-Atlantic coastal region. Wunram, C. (2007): Output parameter list for CLM regional climate model runs performed as community runs in the context of the BMBF funding priority. " Research for Climate Protection and Protection from Climate Impacts " attended by Service Group Adaptation (SGA). (2002): Indicators for social and economic coping capacity—Moving toward a working definition of adaptive capacity. Several research projects have been carried out focussing on both, projected climate change itself but also on evaluation of accuracy and uncertainty of future climate projections. For this purpose, usually model runs for past decades are being compared with actual records of climate parameters but also different model outputs are frequently being compared with each other (see figure 1). (black line) and as simulated (red envelope) by MMD models incorporating known forcings; and as projected for 2001 to 2100 by MMD models for the A1B scenario (orange envelope). The bars at the end of the orange envelope represent the range of projected changes for 2091 to 2100 for the B1 scenario (blue), the A1B scenario (orange) and the A2 scenario (red). (Source: IPCC 2007 (1), p. 874) One prominent project for the European region is the project Prediction of regional scenarios and uncertainties for defining European climate change risks and effects (PRUDENCE) which has been conducted within the 5 th framework programme of the European Union 1. Within this project different parameters of future climate change have been computed by 10 different regional climate models driven by the baseline global model HadAM3H as well as Arpege, CCM3 and ECHAM for comparison, prediction and assessment of uncertainties. The IPCC scenario A2 was mostly used for these experiments some made also use of the B2 scenario. The various outputs of the models employed haven been analysed and compared with each other (see figure 2) but are too extensive …